Iran Strikes Shake Markets

Over the weekend of Feb. 28–March 1, 2026, the U.S. and Israel carried out major strikes on Iran. When trading resumed in the first venues open on Sunday, March 1, 2026, markets that trade more continuously reacted before many cash equity sessions were fully underway.

In early Sunday trading, demand increased for the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, two currencies commonly treated as “safe havens” during periods of stress. In that same window, the euro weakened against the franc, reaching its lowest euro/franc level since 2015.

Oil prices lso rose sharply in weekend dealing. In over-the-counter trading, oil was reported up roughly 8–10%, a type of move that can show up when prices are being reset quickly after a closed period and market depth is thinner than during normal exchange hours.

On Sunday evening (U.S. time), U.S. equity index futures and U.S. Treasury futures reopened for the week, becoming one of the first U.S.-linked places where broad risk could be repriced while cash stocks were still closed.

Gold also drew defensive demand. In Sunday trading, buying was reported as investors sought assets perceived as resilient during geopolitical shocks.

Separately, the news flow carried a specific focus on shipping behavior. Market coverage highlighted risk around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for energy shipments, as participants assessed the possibility of disruption.

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In sudden geopolitical events, early price action often reflects market mechanics as much as the headline. Three features tend to matter most: which markets are open first, how much liquidity is available at the reopen, and how institutions execute risk changes under time pressure.

Currencies often move first because FX trading hours are broad and liquidity is usually available even on Sundays. On March 1, that meant portfolio managers could reduce overall risk quickly by adjusting FX exposures while other markets were still reopening. This can concentrate activity into a few currency pairs and make moves look abrupt.

Liquidity is the second piece. Liquidity means how easily a market can absorb buy and sell orders without a big price change. At the Sunday reopen on March 1, liquidity can be patchier because dealers and market makers are rebuilding quotes after the weekend. When many orders lean the same direction at once, prices can jump until they find enough opposite interest to stabilize.

Safe-haven FX moves can also reflect position clean-up rather than a single shared macro view. In stress, investors often unwind leveraged trades. Unwinding means reducing borrowed exposure and closing related hedges. When those trades were funded in low-rate currencies, closing them can involve buying back yen or francs. The yen and franc strength on March 1 is consistent with that kind of synchronized de-leveraging flow.

Oil’s weekend jump on March 1 can reflect the rapid addition of a risk premium. A risk premium is an extra price paid for uncertainty. When attention turns to the Strait of Hormuz, participants can reprice shipping risk, insurance costs, and near-term supply uncertainty quickly, even before public data confirms changes in physical flows. That repricing can be especially sharp in thin weekend markets where fewer trades set the reference price.

Gold’s demand on March 1 fits a parallel mechanism. Gold is widely used as a hedge because it is not tied to any single company’s earnings or any single government’s credit. In practice, gold buying during stress can also be about balancing a portfolio when correlations rise, meaning many risky assets start moving together. In a shock window like March 1, managers may add gold to reduce the chance that one theme dominates the whole book.

Weekend shocks can look more dramatic than weekday shocks because markets cannot digest them all at once. On March 1, the first moves showed up where trading was available and liquid enough to absorb urgent adjustments, especially in FX and in certain commodity pricing channels.

That staging compresses many decisions into a short period. Large institutions often operate with risk controls that respond to volatility and correlation. When a sudden event raises uncertainty, multiple desks can adjust exposures in parallel. This can amplify early moves, not because everyone shares the same long-term view, but because many participants are solving the same short-term constraint at the same time: reduce risk, hedge gaps, and restore balance.

This is also why early moves can be more about execution than conviction. When markets reopen in layers, the first trades are often “get stable” trades: fast hedges, fast reductions in gross exposure, and fast attempts to keep risk within limits until full liquidity returns.

On Sunday, March 1, 2026, defensive pricing appeared first in the instruments that could move first: yen and Swiss franc strength, euro weakness versus the franc, a sharp oil repricing in over-the-counter weekend trading, and increased demand for gold. In that same March 1 window, attention to Hormuz shipping risk helped frame why energy prices could reprice quickly. The overall pattern is consistent with a staged reopening, where currencies, key commodities, and the first reopening U.S. futures sessions can act as early outlets for broad de-risking before the full equity complex is continuously trading.